Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paks · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Paks are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sumqayıt are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Sumqayıt hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Paks holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paks
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Paks has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00