Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Pakhtakor are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Nasaf are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Pakhtakor hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (68.4 v 56.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.1% in the Super League, while Pakhtakor holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40