Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Pakhtakor are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Lokomotiv are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Pakhtakor hold a 14.2-point power-rating edge (68.4 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.3% in the Super League, while Pakhtakor holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40