Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Pakhtakor are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Buxoro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and pakhtakor hold a 11.8-point power-rating edge (68.4 v 56.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely result in the Super League, favouring Pakhtakor with 14.6% confidence, a 42% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
14.6%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20