Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Paide are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Vaprus are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Paide hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (56.5 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.2% in the Meistriliiga, while Paide holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80