Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Orsomarso are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Popayan are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Orsomarso hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (47.2 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 27.6% in the Primera B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
27.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00