Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Orsomarso are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Envigado are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Envigado hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (47.2 v 63.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.8% in the Primera B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80