Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orsha · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Orsha are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Smorgon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Orsha hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (43.6 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the 1. Division, while Orsha holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Orsha
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Orsha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00