Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orleans · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Orleans are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Rouen are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Orleans hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.5% in the Ligue 3, while Orleans holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Orleans
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
13.5%
Orleans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40