Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Herd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-4
Orkla are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Herd are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Herd hold a 27.2-point power-rating edge (32.8 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 70.5% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Herd holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 84% BTTS chance and 93% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Herd
Probability
70.5%
Model confidence
70.5%
Herd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80