GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Segunda División · 7/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Oriental · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Oriental are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while CA River Plate are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Oriental hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (52.1 v 47.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.3% in the Segunda División, while Oriental holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Oriental

Probability

46.3%

Model confidence

46.3%

Oriental has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

OrientalDDWDW

GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CA River PlateDLWLL

GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OrientalCA River Plate
41.3Attack45.6
63.5Defence45.6
46.0Form43.9
52.1Power47.5
1.46xG0.90
View match centre →