Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Orense SC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Macara are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Macara hold a 39.4-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 63.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.5% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80