Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Ordabasy are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Atyrau are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Ordabasy hold a 28.8-point power-rating edge (73.6 v 44.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.3% in the Premier League, while Ordabasy holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40