GGOALVIO

Orange County SC logoOrange County SCvsTampa Bay Rowdies logoTampa Bay Rowdies

COMPLETED

USA · USL Championship · 8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Orange County SC are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 8.8-point power-rating edge (59.6 v 68.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the USL Championship, favouring a draw with 14.1% confidence, a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

29.7%

Model confidence

14.1%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Orange County SCWWLDD

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Tampa Bay RowdiesWWDWL

GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
50.9Attack63.2
61.4Defence66.7
59.6Form71.9
59.6Power68.3
1.06xG1.37
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