GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 8/16/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Orange County SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Orange County SC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Louisville City are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Orange County SC hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (59.6 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.6% in the USL Championship, while Orange County SC holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Orange County SC

Probability

51.7%

Model confidence

11.6%

Orange County SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Orange County SCLWWLD

GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Louisville CityDDLWL

GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Orange County SCLouisville City
50.9Attack57.9
61.4Defence43.9
59.6Form49.1
59.6Power52.2
1.88xG1.20
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