Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naples · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
NY Cosmos are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Naples are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Naples hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 41.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the USL League One, while Naples holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Naples
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Naples has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00