Northamptonvs
Swindon Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/15/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Northampton are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Swindon Town are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Northampton hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 46.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.1% in the League Two, while Northampton holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Northampton
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
11.1%
Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60