Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Niva · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Niva are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Smorgon are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Niva hold a 28.0-point power-rating edge (67.4 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 78.2% in the 1. Division, while Niva holds the strongest overall chance at 78% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Niva
Probability
78.2%
Model confidence
78.2%
Niva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40