GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/16/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Lowconfidence

New York Red Bulls are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while New York City FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and New York City FC hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (45.0 v 54.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.1% in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

New York City FC

Probability

54.0%

Model confidence

9.1%

New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

New York Red BullsWWLLD

GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
New York City FCWWLLD

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
New York Red BullsNew York City FC
53.7Attack57.4
27.8Defence55.6
46.3Form48.1
45.0Power54.0
1.52xG2.34
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