GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 4/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

FC Cincinnati · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-3

Highconfidence

New York Red Bulls are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while FC Cincinnati are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Cincinnati hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (45.0 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.7% in the Major League Soccer, while FC Cincinnati holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 90% BTTS chance and 93% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

FC Cincinnati

Probability

45.7%

Model confidence

45.7%

FC Cincinnati has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

New York Red BullsLDLWW

GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC CincinnatiWLLLW

GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
New York Red BullsFC Cincinnati
53.7Attack83.3
27.8Defence18.5
46.3Form48.1
45.0Power50.9
2.80xG3.35
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