GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 7/31/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Mediumconfidence

New York City FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Toronto FC are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and New York City FC hold a 12.3-point power-rating edge (54.0 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.1% in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

New York City FC

Probability

63.3%

Model confidence

10.1%

New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

New York City FCWWLDW

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Toronto FCLDDLL

GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
New York City FCToronto FC
57.4Attack44.4
55.6Defence40.7
48.1Form31.5
54.0Power41.8
2.29xG1.05
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