New York City FCvs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 7/25/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
New York City FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Chicago Fire are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (54.0 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.3% in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60