GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 5/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

New Mexico United are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (61.2 v 68.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Probability

38.5%

Model confidence

14.5%

Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

New Mexico UnitedLWDWL

GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Tampa Bay RowdiesWDWWD

GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
New Mexico UnitedTampa Bay Rowdies
52.1Attack63.2
64.6Defence66.7
62.5Form71.9
61.2Power68.3
1.09xG1.25
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