New Mexico Unitedvs
Tampa Bay Rowdies
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 5/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
New Mexico United are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (61.2 v 68.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
14.5%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60