Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neman · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Neman are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Arsenal are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Neman hold a 6.8-point power-rating edge (49.9 v 43.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.5% in the Premier League, while Neman holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neman
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
17.5%
Neman has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00