GGOALVIO

Nelson Suburbs logoNelson SuburbsvsAuckland United logoAuckland United

COMPLETED

New-Zealand · Chatham Cup · 7/26/2026, 1:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Nelson Suburbs · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Nelson Suburbs are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Auckland United are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 3.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Nelson Suburbs hold a 7.3-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 56.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the Chatham Cup, while Nelson Suburbs holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 79% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Nelson Suburbs

Probability

45.8%

Model confidence

45.8%

Nelson Suburbs has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Nelson SuburbsWLWWW

GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Auckland UnitedWLWWW

GF 19 · GA 8 · avg 3.80/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Nelson SuburbsAuckland United
77.8Attack66.7
55.6Defence50.0
66.7Form50.0
63.5Power56.2
2.61xG1.88
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