Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
19%
HighconfidenceNeftchi are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Qizilqum are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and neftchi hold a 41.3-point power-rating edge (80.7 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely result in the Super League, favouring Neftchi with 18.7% confidence, a 26% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
85.8%
Model confidence
18.7%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NeftchiDDWWD
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
QizilqumWLDLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NeftchiQizilqum
79.2Attack27.1
87.5Defence50.0
81.3Form35.4
80.7Power39.4
2.69xG0.33