Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Neftchi are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Nasaf are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 25.1-point power-rating edge (81.7 v 56.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.2% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80