Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Neftchi are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Lokomotiv are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 27.6-point power-rating edge (81.7 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 72.9% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 73% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
72.9%
Model confidence
72.9%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 2 · avg 3.00/0.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00