Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Neftchi are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Buxoro are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 23.3-point power-rating edge (81.7 v 58.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.4% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20