Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Necaxa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Monarcas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 21.4-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Necaxa holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20