Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-2
Nebitci are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Ahal are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 33.9-point power-rating edge (35.9 v 69.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 71.6% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
71.6%
Model confidence
71.6%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00