Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Nebitci are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Şagadam are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Şagadam hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (35.9 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.6% in the Ýokary Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80