Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Nasaf are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Qizilqum are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Nasaf hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (56.6 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 21.9% in the Super League, while Nasaf holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
21.9%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00