Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Nasaf are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Pakhtakor are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Pakhtakor hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (56.6 v 68.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.2% in the Super League, while Pakhtakor holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
18.2%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80