Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Napoli are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Carrarese are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Napoli hold a 33.8-point power-rating edge (79.1 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Napoli holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80