Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Napoli are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Arezzo are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Napoli hold a 19.2-point power-rating edge (79.1 v 59.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Napoli holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80