GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One · 7/3/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portland Hearts of Pine · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Naples are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Portland Hearts of Pine are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Portland Hearts of Pine hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (41.5 v 44.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.2% in the USL League One, while Portland Hearts of Pine holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portland Hearts of Pine

Probability

38.2%

Model confidence

38.2%

Portland Hearts of Pine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

NaplesLLLLL

GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Portland Hearts of PineWLLLL

GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
NaplesPortland Hearts of Pine
36.8Attack50.9
45.6Defence42.1
35.1Form36.8
41.5Power44.5
1.37xG1.53
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