Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
14%
MediumconfidenceNaftan are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Arsenal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and arsenal hold a 14.2-point power-rating edge (30.5 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Premier League, favouring a draw with 13.6% confidence, a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.4%
Model confidence
13.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftanDLLWL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArsenalLLWDW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NaftanArsenal
33.3Attack37.3
29.2Defence49.0
20.8Form41.2
30.5Power44.7
1.04xG1.51