Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Naftagas are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (LW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Dubočica are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Dubočica hold a 27.1-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 50.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 22.4% in the Prva Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
22.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40