Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Nafta are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Celje are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Celje hold a 37.1-point power-rating edge (33.5 v 70.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.9% in the 1. SNL, while Celje holds the strongest overall chance at 81% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
81.0%
Model confidence
14.9%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20