Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machico · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Nacional are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Machico are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Machico hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (47.7 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Machico holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Machico
Probability
34.8%
Model confidence
34.8%
Machico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40