Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leixoes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Nacional are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Leixoes are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leixoes hold a 32.6-point power-rating edge (47.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Leixoes holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leixoes
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Leixoes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20