Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leganes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Nacional are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Leganes are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Leganes hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (47.7 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Leganes holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leganes
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Leganes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00