Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estoril · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Nacional are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Estoril are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Estoril hold a 4.8-point power-rating edge (40.5 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the Primeira Liga, while Estoril holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Estoril
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
14.5%
Estoril has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40