Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NAC Breda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
NAC Breda are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Excelsior are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and NAC Breda hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 40.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while NAC Breda holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
NAC Breda
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
11.9%
NAC Breda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40