Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Mārupe are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Smiltene are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Mārupe hold a 22.6-point power-rating edge (49.1 v 26.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.0% in the 1. Liga, while Mārupe holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
75.0%
Model confidence
75.0%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40