Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mérida AD are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Al-Nassr are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Al-Nassr hold a 17.3-point power-rating edge (24.6 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Al-Nassr holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40