Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MP · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
MP are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while KäPa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (45.9 v 39.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Ykkösliiga, while MP holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MP
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
14.2%
MP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20