Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Moto Club are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Parnahyba are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Parnahyba hold a 10.9-point power-rating edge (37.9 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20