Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monza · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monza are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Avellino are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Avellino hold a 17.0-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 40.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.0% in the Coppa Italia, while Monza holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monza
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
12.0%
Monza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20